What 1990s Americans Got Right About 2025

In 1998, a group of Americans was surveyed to predict what they expected the year 2025 to hold—here's what they accurately (and inaccura...

In 1998, a group of Americans was surveyed to predict what they expected the year 2025 to hold—here's what they accurately (and inaccurately) foresaw.

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Why It Matters

A unique study carried out near the close of the 20th century recorded Americans' dreams and concerns regarding life in 2025, which was a distant future back then.

Now that 2025 has ended, examining the accuracy of these predictionsdemonstrates not just what Americans expected but also the waynational sentiment has shifted over almost three decades. 

What To Know

In September and October 1998, Gallup—collaborating withUSA Today—surveyed 1,055 U.S. adults by phone regarding their forecasts for 2025, storing their answers through the Roper Center at Cornell University.

The surveymet expectations regarding politics, technology, health, and social matters.

These past perspectives aid in understanding current situations and highlight the speed and uncertainty of social development.

Towards the end of the 1990s, the United States stood on the brink of significant technological and social transformation.

At that moment, the country was concentrating on occurrences like the impeachment investigation of President Bill Clinton and the peace established in Northern Ireland through the Good Friday Agreement, while new internet technologies and medical breakthroughs sparked public interest.

The resultsdisplayed a combination of hope and worry: 53 percent of participants felt the standard of living for typical Americans would get better by 2025, whereas 42 percent expected it to get worse.

It was reported by Gallup that the majority anticipated life becoming more difficult for the poor (with 35 percent expecting an improvement for this group) and easier for the wealthy (with 69 percent anticipating a better standard of living for the rich).

Americans expected major social transformations, such as the appearance of a lethal new illness, and the election of a Black president—which 69 percent foresaw.

Nevertheless, numerous technological and medical predictions failed to come true: 61 percent thought it was likely that average lifespan would reach 100 years, while more than half anticipated a solution for cancer.

The survey also revealed significant pessimism: 71 percent felt that raising children would become more difficult, 70 percent anticipated a greater risk of terrorism, and the majority predicted a decline in personal privacy and ethical standards—with many expecting environmental conditions to deteriorate and crime levels to increase.

What Americans Predicted Correctly

• A Black president:In a 1998 poll, 69 percent of participants believed the country would have chosen a Black president by 2025. This came true when Barack Obama was elected in 2008.
• The legalization of same-sex marriage:74 percent anticipated that same-sex marriage would become legal and widely accepted, correctly forecasting the 2015 Supreme Court ruling that made it lawful across the country.
• A deadly disease outbreak:Seventy-six percent predicted a new fatal illness—a timely reaction before the COVID-19 outbreak, which became global in early 2020.
• The growth of e-commerce and telecommuting:56% believed that online shopping would significantly take the place of in-store buying, while 52% expected widespread remote work—showcasing the shift in commercial practices and work culture, particularly following 2020.
• Desired outcomes for interstellar travel, widespread transportation systems, and encounters with extraterrestrial beings:Only a small number of people thought regular space travel (29 percent) or encountering aliens (26 percent) would be widespread, and their doubts were proven right. Additionally, just 38 percent expected cars to be replaced by public transport.

What They Got Wrong

• The first female president:66 percent thought the nation would have chosen a female president by 2025.
• The solution to cancer and a 100-year lifespan:59 percent expected a cancer cure, whereas 61 percent thought reaching 100 years old would be common.

Up for Debate  

• A decrease in individual liberty and confidentiality:Nearly eight out of ten believed there would be less privacy for Americans, and 57 percent expected reduced personal freedom. Whileworries regarding online privacy have increased, assessing true freedom and privacy continues to be challenging.
• Advancements in racial relations and healthcare availability:66 percent believed there would be improved race relations, while 66 percent also anticipated more accessible medical care. It is challenging to definitively state whether race relations have universally improved since the late 1990s. Although the presence of minorities in education and jobs has increased in certain regions, civil rights laws and affirmative action initiatives have had varying impacts.have come under attackand ongoing inequalities continue to exist in housing and the criminal justice system. Surveys also reveal varied opinions regarding public opinion trends. According to a 2023 Pew Researchsurvey, approximately 52 percent of U.S. adults indicated that the nation had achieved "a significant amount or a considerable level of progress" in advancing racial equality during the last 60 years, whereas 15 percent felt there had been minimal or no advancement. Regarding healthcare access in general, although it has improved for numerous individuals, easy access continues to be unattainable for others asaffordability concerns persist.
• Harder to raise children:Approximately 71 percent felt it would be harder to raise children "to be good individuals." This is an opinion-based view and challenging to measure.

What People Are Saying

Mary Claire Evans, who serves as the news deputy director at Gallup, along with Lydia Saad, Gallup's director of U.S. social research, contributed to the report:Americans started to imagine a future where online shopping would take the place of mall visits and working from home would grow more prevalent. Meanwhile, they had considerable concerns about what lay ahead: an increase in terrorism, more conflicts and environmental catastrophes, and challenges in securing and maintaining quality employment.

In the fields of science and medicine, opportunities seemed vast. In 1996, Dolly the Sheep became the first cloned mammal, and Viagra received FDA approval two years later. Americans anticipated significant progress by 2025, including extending lifespan, eradicating severe illnesses, or enhancing access to healthcare.

However, many also anticipated greater challenges in affording healthcare and believed a deadly new disease would arise. Americans expected advancements in race relations and increased diversity in the Oval Office, yet they also foresaw rising crime rates and a decline in ethical standards. Some of these forecasts have come true, while others have not, and some remain open to different perspectives.

What Happens Next

As the United States progresses deeper into the 21st century, continuous public opinion surveys will remain essential in monitoring how Americans perceive their future, providing insights for decision-makers, researchers, and the general public.

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