The more intense the lobbying, the more evident the anxiety. After a decade, the Paris Agreement has transformed energy policies, and the re...
The more intense the lobbying, the more evident the anxiety. After a decade, the Paris Agreement has transformed energy policies, and the resistance from the fossil fuel industry is genuine.
Over the past ten years since the landmark Paris climate agreement was finalized, fossil fuel corporations have been actively working to safeguard their interests, investing millions in lobbying efforts and backing politicians who doubt climate change — achieving notable results.
In the United States, Donald Trump has once more attempted to withdraw from the Paris Agreement andreversed the support for renewable energy sourcessupporting oil and gas. Comparable changes are appearing in other regions, as climate sceptic and denialist parties start to gain influence in Europe.
In the corporate sector, interest in environmental, social, and governance (ESG) standards has also declined due to political resistance and changing market focuses. Additionally, at global climate meetings, the extent of lobbying by major oil and gas firms has been notable.
"At both COP28 and COP29, thousands of fossil fuel lobbyists were present, influencing many delegations, especially those from countries most affected by climate change," said Erika Lennon, a senior attorney at the Center for International Environmental Law in Washington, D.C. This situation remains unchanged at this year's UN climate conference, COP30, held in Brazil.
These advocacy campaigns, according to Richard Blanchard, head of the Centre for Renewable Energy Systems Technology at Loughborough University in the UK, have undermined climate policy.
Reducing the increase in global temperatures
Under the Paris Agreement, nations committed to limit global temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) and aim for a more ambitious target of 1.5C compared to pre-industrial times.
Now, the UN states that 1.5C is no longer achievable and current commitments place the worldheaded towards at least 2.6 degrees Celsiusglobal temperature rise by the end of the century. With increasing combustion of fossil fuels, the planet keeps experiencing unprecedented heat and extreme weather conditions.
Although a recent study indicated that climate change would be significantly worse without theParis Agreement,the shift towards a clean energy-driven world is occurring at an insufficient pace.
People are perplexed," states Blanchard. Notably, "the volume of oil being extracted has not decreased since 2015.
However, for certain experts, the intensity of this resolve to continue extracting and utilizing polluting energy sources is not an indication of the Paris Agreement's shortcomings, but rather a reflection of its influence. The stronger the opposition, the more it indicates that the fossil fuel industry, which depends on burning oil and gas to sustain its operations, feels endangered.
the paris agreement would significantly reduce their earnings," says Blanchard. he further notes that their lobbying activities are "proof of their cautious stance.
What is the operation of the Paris Agreement
That defensive stance indicates a changing energy environment. Globalinvestment in clean energyhas exceeded fossil fuels annually since 2016. As per the IEA, investments in clean energy are projected to reach $2.2 trillion in 2025 (€1.9 trillion) — twice the $1.1 trillion anticipated for oil, gas, and coal together.
Renewable energy sources are also growing at an unprecedented pace, with solar power leading the way and wind following closely. A new IEA report predicts that clean energy capacity will increase more rapidly through 2030 than it did during the previous five years in over 80% of nations. China is fueling much of this progress through significant investments in solar and battery technologies.
Some major oil and gas companies are putting money into renewable energy, but their efforts differ. According to Blanchard, Exxon has supported carbon capture and hydrogen initiatives while continuing to increase oil and gas production. BP, on the other hand, has reduced its focus on renewable projects in favor of expanding drilling activities.
Fossil fuels continue to provide 80% of the world's main energy. Even in favorable clean-energy situations, oil and gas will still be needed during the 2030s and 2040s, as renewable energy production, storage, and power grid capabilities develop.
For the time being, numerous manufacturers are harvesting as much as they can prior to more stringent environmental regulations being implemented, or beforerenewable energy sources become increasingly affordable and dependablethat non-renewable energy sources are losing their appeal.
Blanchard states that fossil fuel companies are worried. Shifts in the market or new regulations might render their oil and gas resources or facilities outdated, resulting in "stranded assets" and no return on their significant investments.
The Paris Agreement conveyed a message to the global community.
Under the Paris Agreement, nations have the autonomy to establish their own emission reduction goals. The agreement's sole mechanisms for ensuring compliance are transparency measures and social pressure — a "name and shame" approach that many consider a significant drawback.
However, its true strength stems not from establishing emission goals but from facilitating industrial change, says Navroz Dubash, a professor at Princeton University's School of Public and International Affairs.
It fundamentally revolves around emissions," he states, "but since emissions represent the conclusion, it doesn't imply they should be the initial step.
Nations aim to expand their economies, which necessitates increased energy consumption and higher emissions such as carbon dioxide, he highlights. The objective should be to provide this energy with the minimum possible carbon dioxide output.
"If you approach it from that perspective, the challenge of tackling climate change is essentially a matter of industrial overhaul," notes Dubash.
The agreement has motivated certain companies to take risks with technologies they might not have otherwise explored.
The positive aspect of this story is that, in my view, the shift towards renewable energy is now unavoidable," says Dubash. "The Paris Agreement played a role in conveying this sense of inevitability.
Global tribunals making their impact
For years, critics have claimed that the Paris Agreement would face challenges in promoting a shift toward green energy, as it provides only a general structure and a temperature target, with specific emission reductions left to individual nations.
Nevertheless, the situation is changing, and "the momentum is not on the side of the fossil fuel sector," notes Erika Lennon. Should oil, gas, and coal companies fail to expand their offerings, other entities will fill the gap.
Governments also have a duty to oversee businesses, such as major fossil fuel companies, and to make sure they are not causing harm to individuals or the environment, according to Lennon, who references recentground-breaking opinionspassed down by three distinct international courts, including theInternational Court of Justice.
These decisions have 'put the fossil fuel companies on alert,' says Lennon. 'So, it's not about fossil fuel companies supporting the Paris Agreement, but about countries fully meeting their responsibilities and controlling polluting industries.'
Edited by: Jennifer Collins
Further reporting by Katharina Schantz
Author: Timothy Rooks
