Angela Raynerhis thinly veiled desire to succeed SirKeir Starmerhas turned into a matter of location, location, location. And the specific l...
Angela Raynerhis thinly veiled desire to succeed SirKeir Starmerhas turned into a matter of location, location, location. And the specific location involved is a Commons constituency she can secure in the nextGeneral Election.
For even though Ms. Rayner has a distinct advantage over one of her main competitors for theLabour crown, Andy Burnham, by already having a seat, that appears poised to change.
According to current poll forecasts, her Ashton-under-Lyne seat is expected to be lost.Nigel Farage'Reform' – along with hundreds of other Commons seats. If a general election were held today, Reform is expected to secure 348 seats while Labour would only gain 161 (theTorieswould be at an extinction-level 14).
Before she can determine how to win the Labour leadership race, the former Deputy Prime Minister needs to first ensure her lasting position in Westminster.
That is highly probable to necessitate a so-called "chicken run" – an undignified yet essential sprint toward a seat that would endure the Reform wave.
And for professional Northerner Ms Rayner, that will likely mean traveling 'down South' to areas where many of the remaining achievable Labour seats are concentrated – and where the Greens andLiberal Democratsare the primary opposition, not Reform.
Hove, where Ms. Rayner has recently acquired a £800,000 coastal apartment, is one such area.
The acquisition ended up being her downfall when she didn't pay the correct amount of stamp duty, forcing her to resign from the Cabinet in disgrace. However, it didn't end her aspirations for future leadership.
Sources within the Labour Party suggest she is targeting the replacement of Peter Kyle, the Business Secretary and MP for Hove, who might be encouraged to move to the House of Lords. In the previous election, Mr. Kyle secured a significant majority of 19,791 over the Green Party, with Reform coming in fourth.
Compare that to Ms Rayner's more superficial win of 6,791 in Ashton-under-Lyne, where Reform came in second.
Insiders also state that she nearly bought a house in another southern region that is expected to support Labour in the next election—Whitstable. The trendy coastal town in Kent is part of the Canterbury constituency, which is represented by Independent MP Rosie Duffield.
However, Ms Duffield became an Independent following her departure from Labour in objection to Sir Keir Starmer's leadership, and she secured Canterbury in 2024 with a majority of 8,653 over the second-place Conservative candidates.
A local Labour insider told The Mail on Sunday: "We learned that Rayner was close to finalizing a move to Whitstable because she had chosen to run for office here. It would have made sense since Whitstable is very much in line with Corbynist and Green values, and Angie could resonate with those voters."
But we were informed that the arrangement encountered an issue and she ended up going to Hove instead.
Ms. Rayner has previously stated that she intends to remain and campaign in Ashton-under-Lyne during the upcoming election. She has also refuted allegations that she is already providing significant government positions to supporters who would endorse her as leader.
Most Labour MPs believe the chicken-run proposals are likely to happen, with many convinced it's just a matter of time before Sir Keir is removed.
In reality, increasing numbers believe he will step down voluntarily following the local council elections in May, along with the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Senedd elections, which are expected to be a major setback for Labour.
Ms. Rayner is not the sole possible Labour leader who might need to move in order to serve as an MP in the upcoming Parliament.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting, who has strong support from older Blairites and the party's right wing, is defending a very narrow majority of only 528 in his Ilford North constituency. Another potential leader—Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood—will also face challenges in retaining her Birmingham Ladywood seat.
Looming in the background, perhaps not for this competition but certainly for the next, stands the formidable presence of former Royal Marines hero Al Carns.
Although elected to the House of Commons just last year, the Defence Minister is gaining more attention as a potential leader of the Labour Party.
Exercising authority over all his possible competitors is Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, who leads in surveys among both the general population and Labour party members.
However, in contrast to most of his competitors, he does not hold a seat in the House of Commons, although MP Clive Lewis attempted to address this issue last week by proposing his Norwich South constituency.
Sources within the party claim that Labour headquarters would never permit Mr. Burnham to accept such an offer.
This is the intense condition of the party as Rachel Reeves gets ready to present her Budget on Wednesday – one of the most highly-anticipated in recent history.
If she had continued with her initial plan to raise income tax, MPs suggest that both she and Sir Keir would have been out of their positions within weeks. Unless there is a surprising 'rabbit out of the hat'—like adopting Kemi Badenoch's idea to eliminate stamp duty—whatever the Chancellor announces appears unlikely to improve Labour's poor standing in the polls.
The surge of pre-Budget disclosures indicates that the core details of the plan are already known: a tax increase achieved by maintaining income tax thresholds and the Left-appeasing implementation of a mansion tax.
However, Labour MPs refer to Ms Reeves as though she is a puppet, controlled by Treasury Minister Torsten Bell, who is seen as the true creator of the Budget.
The property tax was a concept Mr Bell initially attempted to implement while he was employed by Ed Miliband during his tenure as leader of the Labour Party.
Ms. Reeves will surely understand that a significant portion of the Government's future depends on addressing the cost of living for regular voters.
Yesterday, during a pre-Budget statement, she introduced proposals to tackle this issue by implementing a cap on commuter and other controlled train fares across England.
She stated that the change would "reduce the burden on family budgets and make commuting to work, school, or visiting friends and relatives more convenient."
In the meantime, Morgan McSweeney, the troubled chief of staff at No 10, has been organizing discussions between the Prime Minister and chosen MPs in an effort to strengthen Sir Keir's standing.
An MP stated, "They're not performing well. McSweeney is in denial. He continues to repeat the same line about this being a temporary issue and that things will soon improve."
Either he truly is unaware of the situation, or he simply refuses to confront the truth.
Hiding backstage, as usual, is Jonathan Powell, the Prime Minister's National Security Advisor, who previously controlled No 10 with a firm hand during Tony Blair's time, and who remains doubtful about Mr. McSweeney's effectiveness in the same position.
A member of the Labour Party stated, "He has been discussing with individuals to assess the severity of the situation."
The former Blairites – Powell, Tom Allen, Tom Baldwin, and Alastair Campbell – are all considering whether Starmer's stance can be saved or if they need to support another individual.
To enhance the mystery, former Foreign Secretary David Miliband has indicated he "wishes to return and assist."
A member of the Labour Party stated: 'David has been informing people that he believes this is the worst it can get.'
He was deeply concerned about where everything is going for the party.
On Saturday evening, associates of Ms. Rayner refuted claims that she was considering a move within the Canterbury constituency and also denied any intention to withdraw.
They also highlighted that Labour Party regulations mandate incumbent MPs to pursue re-nomination in their respective constituency before they can consider any other positions.
Nevertheless, supporters of Mr. Streeting have previously suggested the possibility of modifying that rule to enable the Health Secretary to move positions.
Read more- With increasing conflicts, is Angela Rayner preparing to become the next progressive leader of Labour?
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- Might Angela Rayner's secret party activities indicate her upcoming challenge for the Labour leadership?
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