When Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson took the stage in Parliament on November 13, 2025, to unveil the 2026 Budget, his manner reflec...
When Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson took the stage in Parliament on November 13, 2025, to unveil the 2026 Budget, his manner reflected a fresh sense of assurance. “Ghana is back,” he stated, attributing this revival to the Mahama government's efforts in re-establishing financial responsibility, stabilizing the cedi, and revitalizing an economy he characterized as having been “burdened by debt” and “devoid of trust.”
The topic, "Resetting for Growth, Jobs and Economic Transformation," was created to indicate a move from handling emergencies to strong economic rebuilding.
After twenty-four hours, former Finance Minister Dr. Mohammed Amin Adam and his Minority Caucus presented a very different account. According to them, the 2026 Budget is not a plan for change but a well-groomed surface hiding poor performance, revenue shortfalls, financial difficulties, and a concerning drop in market trust.
Amid the government's celebration and the concerns voiced by the Minority, there is a detailed economic narrative that requires an open and truthful review. This article analyzes both documents (the Budget Statement and the Minority’s reply) to assist Ghanaians in understanding the nation's current position, the real meaning of the figures, and what is to come.
The Vow: A Restart And A Luminous Black Star
The government thinks Ghana has overcome its challenges. Inflation, which reached 39.2% in 2023, has dropped to 22.9% in 2024 and is expected to decrease to 16.6% by the end of 2025 and 9.9% in 2026. The Minister attributes this improvement to better macroeconomic management and increased investor trust.
The budget also indicates a 6.3% GDP growth rate during the first half of 2025, primarily fueled by the services sector, agriculture, and certain segments of industry. The government states that stability has been restored to the foreign exchange market as well. Following years of fluctuations, the cedi has strengthened, moving from approximately GH¢14 to GH¢11 against the U.S. dollar.
This, according to the Minister, stems from enhanced market confidence and specific actions taken by the Bank of Ghana. Above all, the Minister announced a new stage: Ghana is transitioning from recovery to transformation, with employment, infrastructure development, and economic diversification at the heart of the national plan.
Major projects such as the 24-Hour Economy, the Big Push Infrastructure Plan, the growth of commercial farming, and funding for education and healthcare were showcased as foundations of a new period of productivity. This was a message filled with hope, structure, and progress.
The Controversy: Who Is Responsible For The Stability?
However, the Minority contends that the credit attributed to the government is exaggerated, and in certain instances, incorrectly assigned. They maintain that the progress in inflation, reserves, and non-oil GDP growth was already anticipated due to the IMF program established by the NPP government in 2023.
The 2026 Budget, according to critics, brings nothing innovative: "The NDC has merely followed the plan created by the NPP and the IMF two years prior." They then present a bold claim: that the cedi's stability has not been natural, but rather significantly "bought" through extensive foreign exchange actions.
As per the Minority, the Bank of Ghana has introduced approximately US$8 billion into the market since January, utilizing funds gathered by the prior government. Should this be accurate, they claim, the cedi's stability is not a result of effective policy but rather a costly and unviable expense.
The government does not explicitly tackle this number in the Budget, leaving a key question unresolved: is the cedi's increase due to economic improvement, or because the Bank of Ghana is depleting its reserves?
The Budget Implementation Gap: Control or Cover-Up?
The fiercest clash between the two parties centers on financial responsibility. The Minister positioned himself as the advocate of careful spending, reducing extravagance, closing loopholes, and bringing structure to public funds.
However, the Minority argues that what the government refers to as discipline is, in fact, deliberate underfunding, especially in areas essential for development.
As per the budget data reviewed by the Minority: Goods & Services (Q1–Q3 2025) Program: GH¢5.1bn was allocated, but only GH¢3.8bn was actually disbursed, representing 56% of the annual budget. Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) (Q1–Q3 2025) Program: GH¢26.6bn was planned, yet only GH¢11bn was released, equating to 34% of the yearly allocation.
The Minority claims this is not a sign of caution but rather a liquidity crisis. They calculate that the under-performance: reduced effective demand by 0.514% of GDP, decreased output by 0.41% of GDP (approximately US$469m), resulted in the state losing US$75m in potential revenue, and hindered future growth by 0.1 percentage point.
For them, the Budget's shiny exterior conceals a concerning reality: that the government lacks the means to finance its own initiatives, resulting in a pattern of unpaid bills, postponed payments, and halted developments.
The Mainstream Programs: A Major Effort or Major Doubt?
The budget presents ambitious pledges, yet the opposition challenges the calculations supporting them.
- The 24-Hour Economy. The government states that this bold plan aims to modernize the economy, boost productivity, and generate employment through three rotating shifts.
Yet: It is projected to cost US$4 billion. The government is anticipated to provide between US$300 and 400 million. However, in this Budget, only GH¢90 million has been set aside, mainly for purchasing goods and services. There are no tax refunds. No defined plan is presented. No significant changes in regulations. The Opposition views it as "symbolic," not enough to generate the promised employment opportunities.
- The Major Initiative for Infrastructure Development
The Minister states that GH¢63 billion in road contracts have already been given out and are expected to create 490,000 jobs. However, the Opposition points out that the 2025 Big Push funding amounted to GH¢13 billion.
Commitment approval by mid-2025 amounted to GH¢7.6 billion. Even when including the 2026 allocation of GH¢30 billion, the total planned funds reach GH¢43 billion, which is still significantly less than the GH¢63 billion reported. "How," the Minority questions, "did the Minister approve contracts worth GH¢63 billion without corresponding budget support?" If this is accurate, it brings up concerns regarding compliance with the Public Financial Management Act.
Market Trust: The Figures That Surprised the Minority
One of the most concerning statements from the Minority concerns the domestic debt market. They state that: 25 of the 45 government bond auctions did not succeed in 2025. This results in a failure rate of 55%, which is referred to as "unprecedented."
The auction shortfalls total GH¢17.5 billion. Financial institutions are currently favoring short-term T-bills, which heightens the risk of rollover. Rather than showing strength during the budget week, the GSE Composite Index declined by 0.69%, while the Financial Stocks Index dropped by 0.12%. For the opposition, these figures convey a straightforward message: investors lack confidence in the government's financial structure.
Revenue Goals: Are They Achievable?
The Budget forecasts that revenue and grants will increase to 16.8% of GDP by 2026. However, the Minority highlights substantial revenue shortfalls in 2025. The overall revenue deficit (Q1–Q3) stands at GH¢7.7bn; domestic revenue shortfall amounts to GH¢6.8bn; and tax revenue shortfall reaches GH¢9bn.
If the 2026 objectives are not met, they anticipate additional tax increases during the year, higher outstanding payments, or further reductions in development initiatives.
The Bigger Perspective: A Nation in Change, Yet Where Is It Headed?
In combination, the Budget and the Minority’s reply present two views of the same economy: The Government’s Perspective – A steady macroeconomic situation; a strengthening currency with jobs and growth approaching; and bold investments aimed at transforming the economy.
The Minority's Warning – stability based on the exhaustion of reserves Fiscal responsibility attained by spending less than planned, infrastructure commitments not backed by financial resources, a credit market that is losing trust, growth that lacks substance or employment opportunities; revenue projections disconnected from reality Both stories include factual information - and both pose legitimate concerns.
It is evident that Ghana finds itself at a crucial economic junction. A sense of stability is beginning to take shape, yet it remains delicate. There is visible ambition, but financial support is unclear. The country's future depends not on catchphrases or political assertions, but on whether the government can transform pledges into realistic, adequately funded initiatives.
For the time being, Ghanaians need to carefully examine the figures, pose challenging questions, and remain attentive. As each budget item conceals a decision that will influence lives, employment, and the country's economic future.
By Ernest Kofi Adu, Parliament Building
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