The central government is getting nearer to meeting the 15 percent inflation goal outlined in the 2025 Budget Bill presented to the National...
The central government is getting nearer to meeting the 15 percent inflation goal outlined in the 2025 Budget Bill presented to the National Assembly in 2024.
It is worth noting that President Bola Tinubu, during his presentation of the budget, pledged that the inflation rate would decrease from the 34.8 per cent recorded in 2024 to 15 per cent.
With two months remaining to finish 2025, the government is getting nearer to the 15 percent goal, as October achieved 16.05 percent.
How did inflation decrease in 2025
Encouraged by the revision of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), as the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) implemented a new approach and added new items to the inflation basket, Nigeria experienced a reduction of 10.32 percent in its inflation rate within the national database.
This was followed by a decrease in food prices, primarily grains, which has traditionally been the main factor behind rising inflation figures.
Lower food costs occurred even as farmers faced uncertainty after being forced from their agricultural lands.
Meanwhile, the continuous appreciation of the naira in the foreign exchange market has also been praised for contributing to the decline in inflation, as imported goods have experienced a slight reduction in prices.
What October data says
As per the NBS, Nigeria's main inflation rate decreased to 16.05 percent compared to the September 2025 main inflation rate of 18.02 percent.
In its October 2025 inflation report, the NBS stated that the inflation rate dropped by 1.96 percent when compared to the September 2025 Headline inflation rate, and on a year-on-year basis, the Headline inflation rate was 17.82 percent lower than the figure from October 2024 (33.88 percent).
This indicates that the headline inflation rate, measured on a year-over-year basis, fell in October 2025 when compared to October 2024, the previous year, although the base year differs, with November 2009 set at 100.
It noted that, compared to the previous month, the Core inflation rate in October 2025 stood at 0.93 per cent, an increase of 0.21 per cent from the figure in September 2025 (0.72 per cent).
This indicates that in October 2025, the pace at which average prices rose was greater than the pace of increase in average prices during September 2025.
Regarding food inflation, the rate stood at 13.12 percent when measured on a year-over-year basis.
This represented a decrease of 26.04 percent when compared to the rate observed in October 2024 (39.16 percent). The notable drop in the annual Food inflation rate is primarily attributed to the adjustment in the base year.
Food prices rose monthly
However, on a month-to-month basis, it noted that the food inflation rate in October 2025 was -0.37 percent, an increase of 1.21 percent from September 2025 (-1.57 percent).
It attributed the rise to the average costs of onions (fresh), fruits (oranges, pineapple), shrimp, groundnuts (unshelled), vegetables (ugu, okazi leaf), and meat (goat meat, cow tail, liver), along with other items.
It noted that the average annual food inflation rate for the twelve months ending October 2025 was 21.96 percent, a decrease of 16.16 percentage points from the average annual rate observed in October 2024 (38.12 percent).
For "All items less farm products and energy" or core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural goods and energy, it was 18.69 percent on a year-over-year basis, indicating a drop of 9.68 percent compared to the 28.37 percent recorded in October 2024.
The Core Inflation rate stood at 1.416 percent in October 2025 on a month-over-month basis, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.001 percent from September 2025, which had recorded 1.417 percent. The twelve-month average inflation rate for the period ending October 2025 averaged 21.61 percent, representing a decline of 4.51 percentage points from the 26.12 percent observed in October 2024.
States profile
The report indicated that the overall inflation rate, measured on a year-over-year basis, reached its peak in Ekiti (20.14 percent), Nasarawa (18.97 percent), and Zamfara (18.81 percent), whereas Bauchi (9.99 percent), Anambra (11.72 percent), and Gombe (11.73 percent) experienced the smallest increase in headline inflation over the same period.
However, on a month-to-month basis, October 2025 saw the largest rises in Niger (4.90 percent), Anambra (4.90 percent), and Enugu (4.75 percent), whereas Edo (-4.00 percent), Katsina (-3.26 percent), and Adamawa (-3.10 percent) experienced a drop in month-to-month inflation.
Although food inflation increased the most in Ogun (20.85 percent), Nasarawa (19.96 percent), and Ekiti (19.70 percent) year-on-year, Akwa Ibom (3.98 percent), Katsina (4.15 percent), and Yobe (4.29 percent) experienced the lowest growth in food inflation over the same period.
On a month-to-month basis, October 2025 saw the highest food inflation in Bauchi at 6.77 percent, Abuja at 5.11 percent, and Niger at 4.84 percent, whereas Katsina recorded a decrease of 7.72 percent, Oyo fell by 5.89 percent, and Taraba experienced a drop of 4.89 percent in food inflation on a month-to-month basis.
It mentioned that the Urban inflation rate, on a year-over-year basis, stood at 15.65 percent, representing a decrease of 20.73 percentage points from the 36.38 percent recorded in October 2024.
The urban inflation rate increased to 1.14 percent in October 2025, a rise of 0.4 percent from September 2025, which stood at 0.74 percent.
The twelve-month average for the Urban inflation rate stood at 22.68 percent in October 2025. This marked a decrease of 11.84 percentage points from the 34.52 percent recorded in October 2024.
The rate of rural inflation stood at 15.86 percent on a year-over-year basis. This marked a decrease of 15.73 percentage points from the 31.59 percent recorded in October 2024.
The rural inflation rate decreased by 0.22 percentage points in October 2025, reaching 0.45 percent from 0.67 percent in September 2025. On a month-on-month basis, the rural inflation rate for October 2025 stood at 0.45 percent. The twelve-month average for rural inflation in October 2025 was 20.81 percent, which is 9.42 percentage points less than the 30.24 percent observed in October 2024.
Experts express skepticism
In an interview with Daily Trust, Prof. Ndubisi Nwokoma, a Professor Emeritus of Economics and former Director of the Centre for Economic Policy Analysis and Research at the University of Lagos, mentioned that the government is on track to achieve its goal but raised doubts about the reliability of the data.
He mentioned that it is uncertain whether the numbers are accurate, as the main factors contributing to the drop in inflation are small.
He stated, "So, I have my doubts. That's all I can say and it doesn't really reflect the actual situation. I can't really claim that anything has had a significant impact in reducing inflation, because the only factor they can consider is the exchange rate, which has remained steady around N1,450, or so. However, the market is not currently favorable."
There is a presence of the dollar in the market, yet the supply falls short of our expectations. Therefore, I am unsure what other factors they are considering. Another point is that there remains a sense of insecurity. It's difficult to discuss a reduction in food inflation while this insecurity persists. This indicates that the situation for those working on farms has not seen significant improvement.
I don't perceive any logical explanation for the decrease in the figure. I believe the story has been that the overall economy is getting better, yet at the individual level, the numbers don't align, as the macroeconomic picture is supposed to be made up of the microeconomic elements.
"So, if the micro level isn't performing well, I question why the macro level would be doing better. There has been a story promoted by government officials suggesting the economy is recovering according to macroeconomic data, yet the financial situation at the micro level doesn't support this," he stated.
Nigeria experienced a notable decrease in inflation during October 2025, representing one of the most substantial monthly reductions in inflation this year. The overall inflation rate fell from 18.02% in September to 16.02%, influenced by base effects, a stable exchange rate, and enhanced macroeconomic conditions. A comparable decline was observed in both food and core inflation measures.
Nevertheless, high inflationary pressures persist in essential household areas—such as food, transportation, housing, utilities, education, and health—which together make up 84% of inflation. Ongoing structural issues like significant logistics expenses, energy problems, safety issues in regions that produce food, and weather-related interruptions still hinder supply and restrict the benefits of lower inflation.
This report highlights inflation patterns, examines core factors contributing to price increases, and suggests specific measures to sustain the reduction in inflation while tackling the fundamental reasons behind rising costs.
Regarding this, the Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr. Muda Yusuf, stated that Nigeria's macroeconomic conditions remained stable in October 2025, as indicated by a significant slowdown in the inflation rate.
He observed that the continuous downward trend reflects enhanced cooperation in monetary, fiscal, and exchange rate policies, with the size of the October drop surpassing predictions, indicating greater confidence in the current reform initiatives.
He mentioned that although annual inflation dropped significantly, monthly inflation increased slightly, suggesting lingering issues in supply chains and persistent price rigidity even as broader economic fundamentals improved.
He mentioned that the naira experienced a slight increase and maintained steady stability during the past few months, contributing to reducing imported inflation, especially in industries relying on imported raw materials, supplies, and energy.
He noted the implementation of monetary tightening policies, enhanced foreign exchange market liquidity, a decline in speculative demand for foreign currency, and improved investor confidence resulting from continuous reforms aimed at strengthening macroeconomic coordination.
He mentioned that differences in currency values with nearby CFA zone countries encourage informal exports of food products, which strains local availability. Meanwhile, conflicts between farmers and herders, as well as banditry and rural instability, decrease farming production and increase risks in the supply chain.
He urged strong collaboration among the CBN, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of Transport, Customs, and trade organizations to implement comprehensive inflation control.
To make sure that lower inflation leads to actual improvements in living costs, Nigeria needs to implement focused and ongoing reforms in key areas. Through unified monetary, fiscal, and structural policies, the present course can be enhanced, expanded, and maintained.
Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (Syndigate.info).
