At a recent financial conference in Washington, Elon Musk delivered one of his most extensive forecasts yet: within the next 10 to 20 years,...
At a recent financial conference in Washington,Elon Muskdelivered one of his most extensive forecasts yet: within the next 10 to 20 years,work will be optional, and money may become irrelevant. His reasoning? A world driven by AI and human-like robots, where plenty removes the necessity for work.
"It will be similar to playing sports or a video game," Musk said at theU.S.-Saudi Investment ForumOn November 20. According to him, employment will transform into pastimes—similar to cultivating vegetables in your backyard rather than purchasing them from the market.
Musk credited this future to swift progress in artificial intelligence and the expansion of robotic work, especially via Tesla’sOptimushumanoid robots. He has mentioned that as much as80% of Tesla's future worthmight ultimately originate from robotics. However, he also acknowledged that these robots are still behind in their development.
The Rise of Robots, but at a Gradual Pace
Musk's perspective is rooted in the concept of automation.If automation can substitute human work on a large scale, he claims, work turns into a personal decision. Tesla's Optimus robot plays a key role in this equation—but the project is still many years from becoming commercially feasible.
I believe employment will no longer be mandatory," Musk stated, noting that this shift would be fueled by a "large quantity of human-like robots.
However, experts claim that the development of robotics is not progressing rapidly enough to align with Musk's schedule.
"we have been involved in creating machines for a long time," said the economistIoana Marinescu in Fortune"you frequently encounter diminishing returns" in robotics, she remarked, highlighting that physical machines remain costly and very specific.
This discrepancy is evident in the data. A recentBrookings Institution working paperco-written by Marinescu observed that althoughAI-powered software tools are progressing quickly, hardware is still expensive and challenging to expand.
Moreover, a Yale Budget Labanalysis from October 2024 indicated that although there is significant concern about automation, the "overall job market has not shown a noticeable disruption" as a result of AI implementation since the introduction of tools such asChatGPT in 2022.
Universal Basic Income or Uneven Results?
Musk has proposed the concept of a "universal high income" to support this future, referencing his view that there would be "no scarcity of products or services." However, he did not go into detail about how such a system would operate—or who would finance it.
At the VivaTech 2024conference in Paris, he emphasized that "money will no longer be important," referencingIain M. Banks' Culture seriesas a framework for post-scarcity economics. In those works, artificial intelligence with consciousness oversees a society without work, money, or resource limitations.
Nevertheless, even within fictional contexts, this surplus did not remove conflict. In real life, specialists caution that Musk's views on wealth allocation overlook more fundamental political and systemic issues.
"We are aware that AI has already generated a significant amount of wealth and will keep doing so," statedSamuel Solomon, a labor economist at Temple University, in Fortune. "But one crucial question is: Will this be inclusive?"
A report from Apollo Global Managementemphasizes the issue. It discovered that benefits from the AI surge have mainly gone to top investors—particularly those in the "Magnificent Seven" technology stocks—while the widerS&P 493has witnessed a reduction in profit forecasts.
What Occurs When Significance Becomes Unrelated to Work?
Even if jobs vanish, the human desire for meaning remains. "If the economic worth of work decreases to the point where it's no longer very valuable, we'll need to reconsider how our society is organized," saidAnton Korinek, an economist from the University of Virginia.
Korinek cited a significant Harvard study from 1938 which revealed that people achieve satisfaction through meaningful connections—numerous of which are established at work.
Musk himself recognized this existential challenge atVivaTech 2024:
The real issue will revolve around significance: If computers and robots can perform everything more effectively than you, does your life hold value?
He proposed that humans could take on a new role—not as creators, but as providers of significance for artificial intelligence. Nevertheless, this theoretical concept offers little solution to the consequences if society loses the essential bonds formed through work. Who will assist individuals in making the shift? What will substitute for career identity? Musk provides no response.
The Story Behind the Prediction
Musk's ideas are significantly influenced by the late Iain M. Banks’ work.Cultureseries—an expansive science fiction portrayal of a society beyond labor and currency, led by highly intelligent machines. In Banks' universe, individuals partake in diplomacy, creativity, or pleasure, while artificial intelligence handles operations, administration, and efficiency.
The attraction is evident: the elimination of scarcity, no need to work, and liberation from financial worries. However, in Banks' world, the Culture frequently faces moral dilemmas, cultural involvement, and internal stagnation—posing inquiries about meaning and independence, even in a utopia.
The similarities between Musk's aspirations and Banks' literary works are notable. However, unlike in fiction, actual change in the real world is limited by political factors, engineering challenges, and established economic powers.
Thus far, Musk has introduced the idea—but not the necessary framework. His robots are still in initial testing phases. The structural support for income after labor is absent. Furthermore, the global economy continues to be heavily linked to labor as a basis for identity, value, and authority.
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